North Fork, CA – On November 4, 2025, Californians will be asked to vote yes or no on a single bill, Proposition 50. This highly controversial proposition will redraw the district maps for the state’s representation in the United States Congress.

What Is Prop 50

If voters approve the redistricting plan, the proposed map will flip the partisan advantage of five GOP-held House seats in the state and pull more Democrats into five other swing districts, potentially leaving as few as four Republicans in California’s 52-member congressional delegation.

The gambit, conceived by Governor Gavin Newsom, has put California at the center of a roiling nationwide redistricting arms race as President Trump seeks to protect his narrow Republican majority in Congress. The GOP held a five-member advantage after the last election, the smallest in decades.

 

Why Is This On The Ballot?

Over the summer, Trump pressured Texas Republicans to call a special session and redraw the state’s congressional lines to eliminate five Democratic-held seats. Now, other conservative states have followed suit.

Newsom pledged to offset those gains by redrawing California’s district maps. However, unlike most states, where legislators decide the congressional map, California uses an independent commission created by the voters, so Newsom must return to the ballot to obtain their permission for his plan.

The governor has argued that California must “fight fire with fire,” by gerrymandering Democratic districts to give the party a chance of winning back the House next year and counter Trump’s authoritarian policies. His aggressive advocacy against the president in recent months has made him a hero for some Democrats and further vilified him among Republicans.

Republicans, who make up only a quarter of the California electorate, are scrambling to devise a broadly appealing message to stop Proposition 50. Defeating the measure would not only save the GOP from political annihilation in the state but could also weaken Newsom ahead of an expected presidential run in 2028.

Supporters of the redistricting plan want to fight back against the Trump administration’s targeting of immigrants, erosion of democratic norms, and a federal budget that is estimated to cut $28 billion from health care in California over the next 10 years. Opponents see the proposition as a blatant power grab.

Effects On Our Area

The proposed map is expected to have a minimal impact on our district. The percentage of registered Democrats will decrease from 31% to 29%, while the percentage of registered Republicans will increase from 43% to 44%. However, some rural areas of the state will experience significantly more substantial adjustments to their representation in Congress.

One such area is the far-flung but tight-knit high desert of Modoc County, which has been a thriving agricultural community for generations. If voters approve Proposition 50 in November, residents of the northeast, rural part of the state will have the same representative as Marin County in the Bay Area.

Locals in Modoc County say they’re most concerned that it’s a death knell for rural representation. They worry that their agricultural interests and views on water, wildlife, and forest management would be overshadowed in a district that includes Bay Area communities that have long championed environmental protection.

Modoc County went for Trump by over 70% last fall. Its sheriff, Tex Dowdy, proudly refuses to fly the California flag over his station out of grievance with the state’s liberal governance. In 2013, Modoc made headlines for declaring its intent to secede from California and form the “State of Jefferson” with neighboring counties in the North State and southwest Oregon.

Though Modoc County supervisors have declared their opposition to Prop. 50, there’s little else locals can do. Registered Republicans are outnumbered by Democrats statewide by nearly two to one. Rural residents represent an even smaller share of the state’s electorate.

What Comes Next

Already $90 million in campaign spending has poured into this ballot measure. So far, two polls indicate that Californians are leaning toward approving Proposition 50, although many remain undecided.

Counties will begin mailing ballots on October 6, 2025. Every registered voter in the state will receive a mail-in ballot. Mailing your ballot as soon as possible is the best way to ensure your vote is counted quickly.

If you would like to read a non-partisan analysis of the bill by The Legislative Analysts Office (L.A.O.), the California legislature’s nonpartisan fiscal and policy advisor, follow this link.

If you do not receive a mail-in ballot, you can find out where to vote in the following ways:

• Visit the Secretary of State’s website
• Text “VOTE” to GOVOTE (468-8683)
• Call the secretary of state’s hotline at (800) 345-VOTE
• Check the back of your county Voter Information Guide, or contact your county elections office